Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Thu, May 21 · 16:45 · Ajax vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: Ajax win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
FC Groningen26%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 67% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- May 17 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-0
- May 10 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- May 2 · v PSV (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at NAC Breda (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-0
FC Groningen
DrawLossLossWinWin
- May 17 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-1
- May 10 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-1
- May 2 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
- Apr 25 · at Feyenoord (A)1-3
- Apr 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ajax | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.