Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · Ajax vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: Ajax win · 44%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax44%58%−14
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+4
OursMarket
FC Utrecht31%20%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 67% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 65% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 80% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 42% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 74% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- May 2 · v PSV (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at NAC Breda (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Mar 22 · at Feyenoord (A)1-1
FC Utrecht
WinLossWinLossWin
- May 2 · v NAC Breda (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Excelsior (A)0-5
- Apr 11 · v Telstar (H)4-1
- Apr 4 · at PSV (A)3-4
- Mar 22 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Ajax | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.