Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 24 · 10:15 · Ajax vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: Ajax win · 42%
A 32% away win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax42%54%−12
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
FC Utrecht32%23%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 64% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 63% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 46% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 70% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- May 21 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- May 17 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-0
- May 10 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- May 2 · v PSV (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at NAC Breda (A)2-0
FC Utrecht
LossWinWinWinWin
- May 21 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-2
- May 17 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-0
- May 10 · at Ajax (A)2-1
- May 2 · v NAC Breda (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Excelsior (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Ajax | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.