Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Dec 14 · 13:30 · Ajax vs Feyenoord
Likeliest: Feyenoord win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax34%32%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Feyenoord44%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 43% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
LossLossWinWinWin
- Dec 10 · at Qarabağ (A)4-2
- Dec 6 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)3-1
- Nov 30 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- Nov 25 · v Benfica (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · v Excelsior (H)1-2
Feyenoord
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 11 · at FCSB (A)3-4
- Dec 6 · v PEC Zwolle (H)6-1
- Nov 30 · at Telstar (A)2-1
- Nov 27 · v Celtic (H)1-3
- Nov 23 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Ajax | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.