Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 14 · 19:00 · Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: Ajax win · 61%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax61%69%−7
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard17%13%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 31% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 85% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Feb 8 · at AZ (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · at Excelsior (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)1-2
- Jan 24 · v FC Volendam (H)2-0
- Jan 20 · at Villarreal (A)2-1
Fortuna Sittard
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Feb 7 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-2
- Feb 1 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · at FC Groningen (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Ajax | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.