Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Feb 16 · 15:45 · Ajax vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Ajax win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Ajax62%——
OursMarket
Draw20%——
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo18%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
LossWinWinWinWin
- Feb 13 · at Union Saint-Gilloise (A)2-0
- Feb 9 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-0
- Feb 2 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
- Jan 30 · v Galatasaray (H)2-1
- Jan 23 · at Rīgas FS (A)0-1
Heracles Almelo
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Feb 8 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)4-2
- Feb 4 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-0
- Jan 31 · at NAC Breda (A)1-1
- Jan 28 · v FC Groningen (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ajax | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-2 | 4-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.