Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 21 · 20:00 · Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: Ajax win · 47%
A 31% away win. The market says 24%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax47%52%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%23%−1
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen31%24%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 76% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 68% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Feb 14 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)4-1
- Feb 8 · at AZ (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · at Excelsior (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · v Olympiacos F.C. (H)1-2
- Jan 24 · v FC Volendam (H)2-0
NEC Nijmegen
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Feb 17 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)1-1
- Feb 11 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-3
- Feb 7 · v Heracles Almelo (H)4-1
- Feb 4 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at AZ (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Ajax | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.