Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, May 2 · 18:00 · Ajax vs PSV
Likeliest: Ajax win · 40%
We make it 37% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax40%39%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
PSV37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 71% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 51% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Apr 25 · at NAC Breda (A)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)3-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Twente (H)1-2
- Mar 22 · at Feyenoord (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-0
PSV
LossLossWinWinWin
- Apr 23 · v PEC Zwolle (H)6-1
- Apr 11 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-0
- Apr 4 · v FC Utrecht (H)4-3
- Mar 22 · at Telstar (A)1-3
- Mar 14 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Ajax | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.