UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Aug 26 · 17:30 · Ajax vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Ajax win · 40%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax40%14%+26
OursMarket
Draw25%19%+6
OursMarket
Real Madrid35%67%−32
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 62% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 33% | +32 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 86% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 17% | +37 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
WinWin
- Aug 8 · v Rangers LFC (H)2-1
- Aug 5 · v Brøndby IF (H)2-0
Real Madrid
No recent results tracked.