Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Nov 1 · 15:30 · Ajax vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: Ajax win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Ajax55%——
OursMarket
Draw23%——
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen22%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 26 · at FC Twente (A)3-2
- Oct 22 · at Chelsea (A)1-5
- Oct 18 · v AZ (H)0-2
- Oct 4 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)3-3
- Sep 30 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-4
SC Heerenveen
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 28 · at VVV-Venlo (A)3-0
- Oct 24 · v NAC Breda (H)3-3
- Oct 19 · at Telstar (A)3-2
- Oct 4 · v Excelsior (H)2-1
- Sep 28 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Ajax | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.