UAE League Cup (UAE) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:15 · Ajman vs Al-Sharjah
Likeliest: Al-Sharjah win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajman27%30%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Al-Sharjah46%44%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajman
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 11 · v Al-Ittihad Kalba (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at Al-Nasr Dubai (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Al-Jazira (A)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Hatta (H)4-3
- Aug 14 · at Al-Wahda FC (A)3-2
Al-Sharjah
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 11 · at Al-Wahda FC (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v United (H)4-3
- Aug 30 · at Hatta (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · v Al-Jazira (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · at Al-Dhafra (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Ajman | Al-Sharjah |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.