UAE League Cup (UAE) · Fri, Oct 9 · 13:10 · Ajman vs Baniyas
Likeliest: Ajman win · 41%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajman41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Baniyas30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 49% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajman
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 2 · at Al-Ain (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Al-Sharjah (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Al-Ittihad Kalba (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at Al-Nasr Dubai (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Al-Jazira (A)0-3
Baniyas
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 1 · v Al-Wahda FC (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Al-Dhafra (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · at Khor Fakkan (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Hatta (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Al-Wahda FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Ajman | Baniyas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.