Stars League (Qatar) · Thu, Sep 3 · 14:00 · Al-Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC
Likeliest: Al-Ahli Doha win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Ahli Doha53%41%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Qatar SC24%33%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 67% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 59% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 55% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Ahli Doha
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Aug 28 · v Lusail SC (H)3-3
- Aug 22 · at Al-Sadd (A)1-3
- Apr 27 · at Umm-Salal SC (A)3-1
- Apr 22 · at Al Nassr (A)1-5
- Apr 19 · v Al Hussein (H)3-1
Qatar SC
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 28 · v Al-Sadd (H)2-6
- Aug 20 · at Al-Wakrah (A)2-2
- Apr 27 · v Al Duhail (H)1-2
- Apr 13 · at Al Shamal SC (A)2-0
- Apr 8 · at Al-Arabi SC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Ahli Doha | Qatar SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.