Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Thu, Oct 22 · 18:00 · Al-Ahli vs Al-Khaleej
Likeliest: Al-Ahli win · 70%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Ahli70%67%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−2
OursMarket
Al-Khaleej13%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Ahli
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Oct 19 · at Al-Fayha (A)3-2
- Oct 12 · at Al Wasl (A)3-1
- Oct 9 · at Al-Fateh (A)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Pakhtakor Tashkent (H)1-1
Al-Khaleej
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Al-Fateh (A)3-2
- Oct 15 · v Al-Fayha (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Al-Ettifaq (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Al-Nassr (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Al-Riyadh (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Ahli | Al-Khaleej |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.