Premier League (Egypt) · Thu, Sep 3 · 17:00 · Al Ahly FC vs Smouha
Likeliest: Al Ahly FC win · 63%
A 19% away win. The market says 12%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al Ahly FC63%66%−3
OursMarket
Draw18%23%−5
OursMarket
Smouha19%12%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 88% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 34% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 77% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 85% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al Ahly FC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 28 · at ZED FC (A)2-0
- Aug 23 · v ENPPI (H)3-2
- May 20 · at Al Masry (A)2-0
- May 5 · v ENPPI (H)3-0
- May 1 · at Zamalek (A)3-0
Smouha
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 26 · v Asyut Petroleum (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · at Al-Masry (A)0-1
- May 20 · at Pyramids FC (A)1-2
- May 5 · v Zamalek (H)0-1
- Apr 27 · v Al Masry (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Al Ahly FC | Smouha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.