UAE League Cup (UAE) · Fri, Oct 2 · 13:15 · Al-Ain vs Ajman
Likeliest: Al-Ain win · 75%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Ain75%72%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
Ajman9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 52% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 28% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Ain
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Al Wasl (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Al-Nassr (H)4-0
- Sep 10 · v Al Wasl (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Al-Ittihad Kalba (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Al-Nasr Dubai (H)2-1
Ajman
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Al-Sharjah (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Al-Ittihad Kalba (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at Al-Nasr Dubai (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Al-Jazira (A)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Hatta (H)4-3
| Last 10 games | Al-Ain | Ajman |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.