Stars League (Qatar) · Fri, Aug 21 · 16:30 · Al-Arabi SC vs Al Shamal SC
Likeliest: Al-Arabi SC win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 34%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Arabi SC53%34%+19
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Al Shamal SC23%41%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 62% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 63% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 59% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 66% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 45% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Arabi SC
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Apr 27 · at Al Rayyan (A)0-4
- Apr 13 · v Al Sailiya (H)1-2
- Apr 8 · v Qatar SC (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at Al Shahaniya (A)2-0
- Mar 17 · v Al Sadd (H)2-1
Al Shamal SC
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 27 · at Al Sadd (A)2-3
- Apr 13 · v Qatar SC (H)0-2
- Apr 8 · at Al Shahaniya (A)0-2
- Apr 4 · v Umm-Salal SC (H)3-2
- Mar 17 · v Al Duhail (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Al-Arabi SC | Al Shamal SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.