Stars League (Qatar) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Al-Arabi SC vs Qatar SC
Likeliest: Al-Arabi SC win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Arabi SC54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Qatar SC23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Arabi SC
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 3 · at Al-Sailiya (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Al Duhail (A)1-1
- Aug 21 · v Al Shamal SC (H)2-2
- Apr 27 · at Al Rayyan (A)0-4
- Apr 13 · v Al Sailiya (H)1-2
Qatar SC
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 3 · at Al-Ahli Doha (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v Al-Sadd (H)2-6
- Aug 20 · at Al-Wakrah (A)2-2
- Apr 27 · v Al Duhail (H)1-2
- Apr 13 · at Al Shamal SC (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Arabi SC | Qatar SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.