UAE Pro League (UAE) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:10 · Al-Dhafra vs Al-Sharjah
Likeliest: Al-Dhafra win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 26%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Dhafra42%26%+16
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Al-Sharjah31%48%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 52% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 74% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 35% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.