UAE Pro League (UAE) · Sun, Sep 6 · 16:15 · Al-Dhafra vs Al-Wahda FC
Likeliest: Al-Dhafra win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 19%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Dhafra37%19%+18
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+4
OursMarket
Al-Wahda FC37%58%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 57% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 42% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 81% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 25% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Dhafra
LossLossLoss
- Aug 29 · at Khor Fakkan (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · at Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Al-Sharjah (H)1-3
Al-Wahda FC
LossLossWin
- Aug 30 · v Baniyas (H)2-1
- Aug 21 · at Al-Nasr Dubai (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Ajman (H)2-3