Stars League (Qatar) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:15 · Al Duhail vs Al-Arabi SC
Likeliest: Al Duhail win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al Duhail61%53%+8
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Al-Arabi SC19%24%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 65% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 76% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 47% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 69% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al Duhail
WinWinLossWinWin
- Aug 22 · v Al-Sailiya (H)2-0
- Apr 27 · at Qatar SC (A)2-1
- Apr 8 · at Al-Ahli Doha (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Al Gharafa (H)3-2
- Mar 17 · at Al Shamal SC (A)3-1
Al-Arabi SC
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Aug 21 · v Al Shamal SC (H)2-2
- Apr 27 · at Al Rayyan (A)0-4
- Apr 13 · v Al Sailiya (H)1-2
- Apr 8 · v Qatar SC (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at Al Shahaniya (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Al Duhail | Al-Arabi SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.