Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:00 · Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad
Likeliest: Al-Ittihad win · 52%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Ettifaq23%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Al-Ittihad52%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 66% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Ettifaq
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Neom SC (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Al-Khaleej (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)3-3
- Sep 8 · v Al-Faisaly (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at Abha (A)1-0
Al-Ittihad
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 13 · v Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Al-Hilal (A)2-3
- Sep 14 · at Al Shamal SC (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Al-Faisaly (A)3-1
- Sep 8 · v Al-Fayha (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Ettifaq | Al-Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 4-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.