Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:55 · Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Khaleej
Likeliest: Al-Ettifaq win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Ettifaq47%48%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Al-Khaleej26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Ettifaq
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 11 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)3-3
- Sep 8 · v Al-Faisaly (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at Abha (A)1-0
- Aug 29 · v Al-Diraiyah Club (H)0-3
- Aug 25 · v Al-Nassr (H)2-3
Al-Khaleej
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · v Al-Nassr (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Al-Riyadh (H)0-0
- Sep 3 · at Neom SC (A)0-3
- Aug 28 · v Al-Hilal (H)1-5
- Aug 25 · at Abha (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Ettifaq | Al-Khaleej |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-3 | 0-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 38% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.