Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:00 · Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Riyadh
Likeliest: Al-Ettifaq win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 45%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Ettifaq59%45%+14
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Al-Riyadh19%30%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 70% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 55% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 60% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.