Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Fri, Oct 23 · 13:30 · Al-Faisaly vs Al-Nassr
Likeliest: Al-Nassr win · 82%
Likely score: 0–2
A 82% away win. The market says 76%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Faisaly5%9%−4
OursMarket
Draw12%15%−2
OursMarket
Al-Nassr82%76%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 18% | 24% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 95% | 91% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 6% | 11% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 2.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Faisaly
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 19 · at Al-Shabab (A)2-2
- Oct 15 · v Al-Kholood (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Al-Ittihad (H)1-3
- Sep 8 · at Al-Ettifaq (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Al-Hazem (H)0-0
Al-Nassr
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Neftchi Fargona (H)3-1
- Oct 9 · v Al-Diraiyah Club (H)3-0
- Sep 15 · at Al-Ain (A)0-4
- Sep 12 · at Al-Khaleej (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Abha (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Faisaly | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.