Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Fri, Oct 9 · 14:55 · Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli
Likeliest: Al-Ahli win · 70%
Likely score: 0–2
A 70% away win. The market says 66%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Fateh12%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%0
OursMarket
Al-Ahli70%66%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 19% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Fateh
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 13 · at Neom SC (A)2-4
- Sep 9 · v Al-Diraiyah Club (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Al-Taawoun (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Al-Ittihad (H)0-0
- Aug 26 · at Al-Faisaly (A)1-1
Al-Ahli
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Pakhtakor Tashkent (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Al-Hazem (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)2-3
- Sep 4 · v Al-Riyadh (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Fateh | Al-Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.