Stars League (Qatar) · Thu, Oct 22 · 16:45 · Al-Gharafa vs Al-Ahli Doha
Likeliest: Al-Ahli Doha win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A 44% away win. The market says 38%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Gharafa33%38%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Al-Ahli Doha44%38%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 62% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 62% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 50% | −7 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Gharafa
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Al-Rayyan (H)0-0
- Oct 12 · v Esteghlal FC (H)1-2
- Oct 8 · at Al-Wakrah (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · at Al-Hilal (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Lusail SC (H)0-0
Al-Ahli Doha
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 16 · v Al-Wakrah (H)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Al-Sailiya (H)5-0
- Sep 11 · at Al-Rayyan (A)0-3
- Sep 3 · v Qatar SC (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Lusail SC (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Al-Gharafa | Al-Ahli Doha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.