Stars League (Qatar) · Fri, Aug 21 · 14:15 · Al-Gharafa vs Al-Shahaniya
Likeliest: Al-Gharafa win · 48%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Gharafa48%49%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
Al-Shahaniya27%26%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 66% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.