AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Mon, Oct 12 · 18:15 · Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC
Likeliest: Esteghlal FC win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Gharafa36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Esteghlal FC36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Gharafa
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 8 · at Al-Wakrah (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · at Al-Hilal (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Lusail SC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Al-Sadd (A)1-4
- Aug 27 · v Al Shamal SC (H)1-3
Esteghlal FC
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 8 · at Tractor FC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · v Al-Sadd (H)3-0
- Sep 10 · v Paykan (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Aluminium Arak (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · v Persepolis FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Gharafa | Esteghlal FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-4 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.