Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Thu, Oct 22 · 13:40 · Al-Hazem vs Al-Fayha
Likeliest: Al-Fayha win · 35%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Hazem35%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Al-Fayha35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Hazem
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 19 · at Al-Hilal (A)0-1
- Oct 15 · v Al-Fateh (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Neom SC (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Al-Ahli (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Al-Taawoun (H)1-0
Al-Fayha
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 19 · v Al-Ahli (H)2-3
- Oct 15 · at Al-Khaleej (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · v Al-Riyadh (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Al-Shabab (A)0-0
- Sep 8 · at Al-Ittihad (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Al-Hazem | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.