AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Sep 15 · 18:15 · Al-Hilal vs Al-Gharafa
Likeliest: Al-Hilal win · 87%
A tight one: we make it 87% for the home win. The market says 85%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Hilal87%85%+2
OursMarket
Draw8%11%−2
OursMarket
Al-Gharafa5%5%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 95% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 14% | 15% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 95% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 3.1 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Hilal
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Al-Taawoun (A)6-0
- Sep 7 · v Neom SC (H)0-2
- Sep 4 · at Al-Shabab (A)2-0
- Sep 1 · v Al-Ahli (H)3-0
- Aug 28 · at Al-Khaleej (A)5-1
Al-Gharafa
WinLossLossDraw
- Sep 11 · v Lusail SC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Al-Sadd (A)1-4
- Aug 27 · v Al Shamal SC (H)1-3
- Aug 21 · v Al-Shahaniya (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Hilal | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-1 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | — |
| Both teams scored | 25% | — |
| Clean sheets | 63% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.