AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 18:15 · Al-Hilal vs Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
Likeliest: Al-Hilal win · 67%
Likely scores: 2–1 13% · 3–0 10% · 1–0 9%
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Hilal67%64%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 36% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Hilal
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 31 · v Al-Fateh (H)2-0
- Oct 27 · at Al Shamal SC (A)1-3
- Oct 23 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)3-2
- Oct 19 · v Al-Hazem (H)1-0
- Oct 13 · at Al-Sadd (A)2-0
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 27 · v Esteghlal FC (H)2-0
- Oct 22 · v Al-Ain (H)2-2
- Oct 17 · v Al-Ain (H)2-0
- Oct 13 · at Al-Ittihad (A)2-1
- Oct 8 · v United (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Hilal | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-1 | 3-2-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.