Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:00 · Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
Likeliest: Al-Ittihad win · 54%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Ittihad54%63%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Al-Fayha23%17%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 63% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 37% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 79% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Ittihad
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v Al-Nassr (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Al-Fateh (A)0-0
- Aug 24 · v Al-Hazem (H)3-2
- Aug 21 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)1-0
- Aug 18 · at Al-Najma SC (A)3-0
Al-Fayha
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 3 · v Al-Kholood (H)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Abha (H)3-2
- Aug 25 · at Al-Taawoun (A)0-0
- Aug 20 · v Al-Hilal (H)0-3
- Aug 17 · at Al Adalah (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Ittihad | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-0 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.