AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Oct 13 · 18:15 · Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
Likeliest: Al-Ittihad win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Ittihad53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Ittihad
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Al-Hilal (A)2-3
- Sep 14 · at Al Shamal SC (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Al-Faisaly (A)3-1
- Sep 8 · v Al-Fayha (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Al-Nassr (H)2-1
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 8 · v United (H)2-1
- Oct 2 · v Al-Nasr Dubai (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Hatta (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Tractor FC (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · at United (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Ittihad | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.