AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Aug 11 · 16:00 · Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad
Likeliest: Al-Jazira win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 24%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Jazira44%24%+20
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Al-Ittihad30%49%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 50% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 51% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 76% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 33% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.