Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Thu, Oct 15 · 14:50 · Al-Khaleej vs Al-Fayha
Likeliest: Al-Khaleej win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Khaleej44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Al-Fayha27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Khaleej
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Al-Ettifaq (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Al-Nassr (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Al-Riyadh (H)0-0
- Sep 3 · at Neom SC (A)0-3
- Aug 28 · v Al-Hilal (H)1-5
Al-Fayha
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · v Al-Riyadh (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Al-Shabab (A)0-0
- Sep 8 · at Al-Ittihad (A)1-2
- Sep 3 · v Al-Kholood (H)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Abha (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Al-Khaleej | Al-Fayha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.