Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:05 · Al-Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq
Likeliest: Al-Kholood win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A 39% home win. The market says 35%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Kholood39%35%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Al-Ettifaq36%39%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Kholood
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 15 · at Al-Faisaly (A)2-3
- Oct 9 · v Al-Qadsiah (H)0-5
- Sep 13 · at Al-Riyadh (A)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Al-Shabab (H)2-1
- Sep 3 · at Al-Fayha (A)2-2
Al-Ettifaq
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Neom SC (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Al-Khaleej (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Al-Qadsiah (A)3-3
- Sep 8 · v Al-Faisaly (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at Abha (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Kholood | Al-Ettifaq |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.