Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Fri, Oct 9 · 13:50 · Al-Kholood vs Al-Qadsiah
Likeliest: Al-Qadsiah win · 68%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Kholood13%17%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
Al-Qadsiah68%64%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 83% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 16% | 21% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Kholood
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 13 · at Al-Riyadh (A)0-2
- Sep 9 · v Al-Shabab (H)2-1
- Sep 3 · at Al-Fayha (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Al-Ahli (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · at Al-Diraiyah Club (A)1-1
Al-Qadsiah
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 14 · v Al Wasl (H)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Al-Ettifaq (H)3-3
- Sep 8 · v Al-Ahli (H)3-2
- Sep 3 · at Al-Diraiyah Club (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · v Al-Faisaly (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Kholood | Al-Qadsiah |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-1 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.