Premier League (Egypt) · Sat, Aug 22 · 17:00 · Al-Masry vs Smouha
Likeliest: Al-Masry win · 52%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Masry52%47%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Smouha22%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 36% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 41% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 53% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Masry
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- May 20 · v Al Ahly (H)0-2
- May 1 · at Ceramica Cleopatra (A)1-0
- Apr 27 · at Smouha (A)1-0
- Apr 22 · v ENPPI (H)2-2
- Apr 11 · at Pyramids FC (A)1-1
Smouha
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 20 · at Pyramids FC (A)1-2
- May 5 · v Zamalek (H)0-1
- Apr 27 · v Al Masry (H)0-1
- Apr 22 · v Ceramica Cleopatra (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Al Ahly (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Al-Masry | Smouha |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.