Premier League (Egypt) · Wed, Sep 9 · 17:00 · Al-Mokawloon vs Al Ahly FC
Likeliest: Al-Mokawloon win · 43%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 41%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Mokawloon43%11%+33
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Al Ahly FC30%67%−37
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 46% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 41% | +17 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 33% | +37 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 89% | −33 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 14% | +45 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Mokawloon
WinLossLossWin
- Sep 2 · at El Gouna FC (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · v Al-Masry (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Tala'ea El-Gaish (A)0-1
- May 29 · v Modern Sport FC (H)3-1
Al Ahly FC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 3 · v Smouha (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at ZED FC (A)2-0
- Aug 23 · v ENPPI (H)3-2
- May 20 · at Al Masry (A)2-0
- May 5 · v ENPPI (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Mokawloon | Al Ahly FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 40% |
| Clean sheets | — | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.