Premier League (Egypt) · Mon, Oct 12 · 14:00 · Al-Mokawloon vs ZED FC
Likeliest: draw · 39%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the draw. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Mokawloon25%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw39%36%+4
OursMarket
ZED FC35%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 34% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 40% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 61% | 64% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Mokawloon
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 15 · at Wadi Degla (A)2-0
- Sep 9 · v Al Ahly FC (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at El Gouna FC (A)1-0
- Aug 27 · v Al-Masry (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Tala'ea El-Gaish (A)0-1
ZED FC
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 17 · v Canal SC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at ASAS (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · at ENPPI (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v ASAS (H)4-0
- Sep 1 · at Tala'ea El-Gaish (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Mokawloon | ZED FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.