King's Cup (Saudi Arabia) · Tue, Aug 18 · 16:15 · Al-Najma SC vs Al-Ittihad
Likeliest: Al-Ittihad win · 39%
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Najma SC38%14%+24
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+5
OursMarket
Al-Ittihad39%67%−29
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 63% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 55% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 33% | +29 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 86% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 81% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 17% | +33 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Najma SC
No recent results tracked.
Al-Ittihad
WinDraw
- Aug 15 · v Al-Kholood (H)1-1
- Aug 11 · at Al-Jazira (A)4-1