Saudi 1st Division (Saudi Arabia) · Mon, Oct 12 · 15:15 · Al-Najma SC vs Damac FC
Likeliest: Al-Najma SC win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Najma SC48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Damac FC24%25%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Najma SC
Loss
- Aug 18 · v Al-Ittihad (H)0-3
Damac FC
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 19 · v Al-Taawoun (H)0-3
- May 21 · at Al Nassr (A)1-4
- May 15 · v Al-Fayha (H)3-0
- May 10 · at Al Ittihad (A)1-2
- May 2 · v Al Khaleej (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Al-Najma SC | Damac FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 40% |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.