Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Sat, Aug 15 · 18:00 · Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh
Likeliest: Al-Nassr win · 73%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 23%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Nassr73%84%−11
OursMarket
Draw16%10%+6
OursMarket
Al-Fateh10%6%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 77% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 94% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 16% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 90% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 93% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.