Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:00 · Al-Qadsiah vs Al-Ahli
Likeliest: Al-Qadsiah win · 65%
A 65% home win. The market says 51%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Qadsiah65%51%+14
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
Al-Ahli16%25%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 75% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 49% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 67% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Qadsiah
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 3 · at Al-Diraiyah Club (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · v Al-Faisaly (H)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Neom SC (A)2-0
- Aug 21 · v Al-Ittihad (H)0-1
- Aug 17 · at Al Tai (A)5-0
Al-Ahli
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 4 · v Al-Riyadh (H)5-0
- Sep 1 · at Al-Hilal (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Al-Kholood (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · v Auckland FC (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Abha (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Qadsiah | Al-Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 5-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 29% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 57% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.