Pro League (Saudi Arabia) · Fri, Aug 21 · 18:00 · Al-Qadsiah vs Al-Ittihad
Likeliest: Al-Qadsiah win · 69%
A 69% home win. The market says 54%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Qadsiah69%54%+16
OursMarket
Draw19%22%−3
OursMarket
Al-Ittihad12%25%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 75% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 46% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 69% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Qadsiah
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 17 · at Al Tai (A)5-0
- Aug 13 · at Al-Shabab (A)3-1
- May 21 · at Al Ittihad (A)5-1
- May 14 · v Al Hazm (H)2-0
- May 9 · at Al-Fayha (A)2-1
Al-Ittihad
WinDrawWin
- Aug 18 · at Al-Najma SC (A)3-0
- Aug 15 · v Al-Kholood (H)1-1
- Aug 11 · at Al-Jazira (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Qadsiah | Al-Ittihad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | — |
| Both teams scored | 70% | — |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.