AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Mon, Sep 14 · 18:15 · Al-Qadsiah vs Al Wasl
Likeliest: Al-Qadsiah win · 59%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Qadsiah59%64%−5
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Al Wasl19%16%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 36% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Qadsiah
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 11 · v Al-Ettifaq (H)3-3
- Sep 8 · v Al-Ahli (H)3-2
- Sep 3 · at Al-Diraiyah Club (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · v Al-Faisaly (H)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Neom SC (A)2-0
Al Wasl
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 10 · at Al-Ain (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v Khor Fakkan (H)5-2
- Aug 28 · v Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai (H)0-1
- Aug 21 · at Al-Ittihad Kalba (A)3-0
- Aug 15 · v United (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Qadsiah | Al Wasl |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.