Saudi 1st Division (Saudi Arabia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 15:00 · Al-Raed vs Al-Wehda
Likeliest: Al-Wehda win · 53%
Likely scores: 1–2 15% · 1–1 10% · 0–1 10%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Raed21%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+2
OursMarket
Al-Wehda53%51%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Raed
DrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 28 · at Al-Jabalain (A)0-1
- Oct 19 · v Al-Saqer (H)0-2
- Oct 14 · v Jeddah Club (H)1-0
- Aug 17 · v Al-Hilal (H)0-0
Al-Wehda
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 27 · v Al-Saqer (H)2-1
- Oct 21 · at Al Anwar (A)1-1
- Oct 12 · v Al Tai (H)6-1
- Aug 16 · v Al-Shabab (H)1-1
- Sep 23 · v Al Ittihad (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Al-Raed | Al-Wehda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.