Stars League (Qatar) · Fri, Oct 9 · 17:00 · Al-Sadd vs Al-Arabi SC
Likeliest: Al-Sadd win · 67%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Sadd67%64%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Al-Arabi SC17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 36% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Sadd
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 14 · at Esteghlal FC (A)0-3
- Sep 10 · at Al-Sailiya (A)6-3
- Sep 5 · v Al-Gharafa (H)4-1
- Aug 28 · at Qatar SC (A)6-2
- Aug 22 · v Al-Ahli Doha (H)3-1
Al-Arabi SC
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Qatar SC (H)0-0
- Sep 3 · at Al-Sailiya (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Al Duhail (A)1-1
- Aug 21 · v Al Shamal SC (H)2-2
- Apr 27 · at Al Rayyan (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Al-Sadd | Al-Arabi SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.