AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Oct 13 · 16:00 · Al-Sadd vs Al-Hilal
Likeliest: Al-Hilal win · 65%
Likely score: 1–2
A 65% away win. The market says 61%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Al-Sadd15%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Al-Hilal65%61%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 24% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Al-Sadd
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 9 · v Al-Arabi SC (H)2-3
- Sep 14 · at Esteghlal FC (A)0-3
- Sep 10 · at Al-Sailiya (A)6-3
- Sep 5 · v Al-Gharafa (H)4-1
- Aug 28 · at Qatar SC (A)6-2
Al-Hilal
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Al-Ittihad (H)3-2
- Sep 15 · v Al-Gharafa (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Al-Taawoun (A)6-0
- Sep 7 · v Neom SC (H)0-2
- Sep 4 · at Al-Shabab (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Al-Sadd | Al-Hilal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.